probability — Polymarket Trader
Wallet: 0x74f1b8944c7b10f7239e3dda0de6b8ee42e816a8
probability on Polymarket: live positions, trade history and performance analytics on PolymarketScan.
probability is one of 896,000+ Polymarket traders tracked live on PolymarketScan — every trade, position, and PnL move on this wallet updates in real time.
- All-time P&L
- +$134,240
- Total Trades
- 50
- Win Rate
- 100.0% (50W / 3,484L settled)
- Volume
- $13,309,690
- ROI
- +1.0%
- Current Streak
- 50 win streak
- Avg Hold Time
- 24.3 days
- Avg Position
- $15
- Biggest Win
- +$32,270 — Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Biggest Loss
- -$32,270 — Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Sharpe Ratio
- 0.62
- Unique Markets
- 1902
- Active For
- 765 days
What probability trades
- Binary — 100% of activity
- Misc — 56% of activity
- Sports — 24% of activity
Recent Polymarket trades by probability
- BUY NO $9.13 — Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? (4h ago)
- BUY NO $1.78 — Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? (4h ago)
- BUY NO $22.75 — Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? (4h ago)
- BUY NO $19.83 — Will Pierre Gasly finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? (4h ago)
- BUY YES $3.24 — Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? (4h ago)
- BUY YES $5.66 — Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? (4h ago)
- BUY YES $12.42 — Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? (4h ago)
- BUY YES $10.26 — Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? (4h ago)
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Frequently asked questions
What does probability trade on Polymarket?
probability trades mostly Binary markets (100% of activity) across 1902 unique Polymarket markets. The full category breakdown and every position is on this trader's PolymarketScan profile.
How can I track probability's Polymarket trades?
PolymarketScan tracks probability's wallet (0x74f1b8944c7b10f7239e3dda0de6b8ee42e816a8) live and free: every trade, open position, PnL chart, and behavioral stats. Add the trader to a watchlist for alerts. PolymarketScan is read-only analytics — trading itself happens on Polymarket.
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