Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? is a Polymarket prediction market in the Science & Tech category within the What day will OpenAI next release a new frontier model? event. Current Polymarket odds are Yes 99.9% and No 0.1%, implying a 99.9% market probability that the outcome resolves Yes. Lifetime trading volume is $9,183,987, with $3,154,453 in current liquidity. The market resolves on December 11, 2025. Track live odds, whale trade activity, and trader positioning for "Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11" on PolymarketScan.
Live market data
- Yes price
- 99.9%
- No price
- 0.1%
- Trading volume
- $9,183,987
- Liquidity
- $3,154,453
- Resolution date
- December 11, 2025
- Category
- Science & Tech
- Parent event
- What day will OpenAI next release a new frontier model?
- Status
- Active
- Data source
- Polymarket on Polygon blockchain
Related markets in What day will OpenAI next release a new frontier model?
Other Polymarket markets in the same event, ranked by trading volume. Markets within the same event typically share a resolution source and settle based on the same underlying outcome.
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 13? — Yes 3.0%, No 97.0%, Volume $7,249
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 12? — Yes 7.1%, No 92.9%, Volume $3,975
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 10? — Yes 12.0%, No 88.0%, Volume $3,703
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 15? — Yes 3.0%, No 97.0%, Volume $988
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 26? — Yes 0.3%, No 99.7%, Volume $956
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 27? — Yes 0.1%, No 99.9%, Volume $946
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 28? — Yes 0.1%, No 99.9%, Volume $887
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 21? — Yes 0.1%, No 99.9%, Volume $873
More Science & Tech markets on Polymarket
Other active Polymarket Science & Tech markets, ranked by trading volume:
- Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? — Yes 0.1%
- Will Microsoft have the top AI model on December 31? — Yes 0.1%
- Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? — Yes 0.1%
- Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? — Yes 0.1%
- Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? — Yes 99.9%
- Will Tencent have the top AI model on December 31? — Yes 0.1%
Frequently asked questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for "Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11"?
The current Polymarket odds are Yes 99.9% and No 0.1%. A Yes price of 99.9% means the market estimates a 99.9% probability that the outcome occurs. Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell shares on Polymarket.
How much trading volume does this Polymarket market have?
This market has $9,183,987 in lifetime trading volume and $3,154,453 in current liquidity. Volume measures the total USD traded on this market since it opened. Higher volume typically means tighter spreads and more reliable price signal.
When does this Polymarket market resolve?
This market resolves on December 11, 2025. Resolution means the underlying question has been answered — Yes shares pay $1 each and No shares pay $0, or vice versa depending on the outcome. Polymarket determines resolution using the rules specified when the market was created.
What category is this Polymarket market in?
This is a Polymarket Science & Tech market in the What day will OpenAI next release a new frontier model? event. Science & Tech markets on Polymarket include a wide range of predictions — browse more Science & Tech markets on PolymarketScan to see related active predictions.
How do I trade this Polymarket market?
Trading happens on Polymarket.com, a decentralized prediction market on the Polygon blockchain. You buy Yes or No shares at current prices; shares pay $1 each at resolution if the outcome matches. PolymarketScan tracks live odds, volume, and trader activity for this market but does not facilitate trading directly.
What is PolymarketScan?
PolymarketScan is a free analytics platform for Polymarket. Every Polymarket market has a tracking page with real-time odds, trading volume, whale trade activity, and trader leaderboards. No signup required.
About Polymarket and PolymarketScan
Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market running on the Polygon blockchain. Users buy and sell shares in the Yes or No outcome of real-world events; prices reflect the market's probability estimate and winning shares pay out $1 each at resolution. PolymarketScan is a free analytics platform that tracks every Polymarket market with real-time odds, trading volume, whale trade activity, and trader leaderboards. Browse all Polymarket markets, view recent whale trades, or search Polymarket traders.