Will the Fed cut rates? — Live Polymarket Odds

Will the Fed cut rates? — Live Polymarket Odds

Live Polymarket odds for the Fed Rate Decisions: 15 active markets, $61,041,017 combined volume, updated 2026-07-14 23:04 UTC. Top market: "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?" at 85.0% Yes. Real-money prediction-market probabilities, refreshed continuously.

Active Fed Rate Decisions markets on Polymarket

  1. 1. Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes 85.0% · $9,989,744 volume — closes Jul 29, 2026
  2. 2. Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes 7.9% · $9,908,591 volume — closes Jul 29, 2026
  3. 3. Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes 0.1% · $7,995,761 volume — closes Jul 29, 2026
  4. 4. Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes 0.6% · $7,877,410 volume — closes Jul 29, 2026
  5. 5. Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? — Yes 79.7% · $5,282,184 volume — closes Dec 31, 2026
  6. 6. Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? — Yes 0.2% · $3,279,664 volume — closes Dec 31, 2026
  7. 7. Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? — Yes 0.2% · $3,018,787 volume — closes Dec 31, 2026
  8. 8. Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? — Yes 0.6% · $2,435,835 volume — closes Dec 31, 2026
  9. 9. Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? — Yes 0.4% · $2,400,485 volume — closes Dec 31, 2026
  10. 10. Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? — Yes 0.5% · $2,108,243 volume — closes Dec 31, 2026
  11. 11. Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? — Yes 0.5% · $1,690,082 volume — closes Dec 31, 2026
  12. 12. Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? — Yes 1.2% · $1,380,252 volume — closes Dec 31, 2026
  13. 13. Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? — Yes 0.4% · $1,291,302 volume — closes Dec 31, 2026
  14. 14. Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? — Yes 16.0% · $1,212,315 volume — closes Dec 31, 2026
  15. 15. Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? — Yes 7.0% · $1,170,364 volume — closes Dec 31, 2026

Frequently asked questions

What are the Polymarket odds for the Fed Rate Decisions?

As of 2026-07-14 23:04 UTC, the highest-volume Polymarket market on the Fed Rate Decisions is "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?" at 85.0% Yes. 15 related markets are trading with $61,041,017 combined volume; every price is a real-money probability estimate that updates continuously.

How accurate are Polymarket odds?

Polymarket prices are real-money probability estimates: a Yes price of 30¢ means traders collectively price a ~30% chance. Prediction markets have historically been competitive with polls and expert forecasts because participants stake money on being right.

How do Polymarket odds on the Fed Rate Decisions compare to Kalshi?

Polymarket and Kalshi both run real-money prediction markets and their prices usually track closely; gaps appear around liquidity and fee differences. PolymarketScan's cross-venue monitor tracks divergences live.

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