Will the Fed cut rates? — Live Polymarket Odds

Will the Fed cut rates? — Live Polymarket Odds

Live Polymarket odds for the Fed Rate Decisions: 15 active markets, 37.3M shares combined volume, updated 2026-10-14 20:54 UTC. Top market: "Fed rate hike in 2026?" at 74.0% Yes. Real-money prediction-market probabilities, refreshed continuously.

Active Fed Rate Decisions markets on Polymarket

  1. 1. Fed rate hike in 2026? — Yes 74.0% · 8.78M shares traded — closes Dec 9, 2026
  2. 2. Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? — Yes 79.7% · 5.28M shares traded — closes Dec 31, 2026
  3. 3. Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? — Yes 0.2% · 3.28M shares traded — closes Dec 31, 2026
  4. 4. Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? — Yes 0.2% · 3.02M shares traded — closes Dec 31, 2026
  5. 5. Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? — Yes 0.6% · 2.44M shares traded — closes Dec 31, 2026
  6. 6. Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? — Yes 0.4% · 2.4M shares traded — closes Dec 31, 2026
  7. 7. Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? — Yes 0.5% · 2.11M shares traded — closes Dec 31, 2026
  8. 8. Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? — Yes 0.5% · 1.69M shares traded — closes Dec 31, 2026
  9. 9. Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? — Yes 1.2% · 1.38M shares traded — closes Dec 31, 2026
  10. 10. Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? — Yes 0.4% · 1.29M shares traded — closes Dec 31, 2026
  11. 11. Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? — Yes 16.0% · 1.21M shares traded — closes Dec 31, 2026
  12. 12. Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? — Yes 7.0% · 1.17M shares traded — closes Dec 31, 2026
  13. 13. Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? — Yes 1.2% · 1.15M shares traded — closes Dec 31, 2026
  14. 14. Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? — Yes 2.1% · 1.07M shares traded — closes Dec 31, 2026
  15. 15. Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? — Yes 46.0% · 1M shares traded — closes Dec 9, 2026

Frequently asked questions

What are the Polymarket odds for the Fed Rate Decisions?

As of 2026-10-14 20:54 UTC, the highest-volume Polymarket market on the Fed Rate Decisions is "Fed rate hike in 2026?" at 74.0% Yes. 15 related markets are trading with 37.3M shares combined volume; every price is a real-money probability estimate that updates continuously.

How accurate are Polymarket odds?

Polymarket prices are real-money probability estimates: a Yes price of 30¢ means traders collectively price a ~30% chance. Prediction markets have historically been competitive with polls and expert forecasts because participants stake money on being right.

How do Polymarket odds on the Fed Rate Decisions compare to Kalshi?

Polymarket and Kalshi both run real-money prediction markets and their prices usually track closely; gaps appear around liquidity and fee differences. PolymarketScan's cross-venue monitor tracks divergences live.

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