Who will win the 2026 midterms? — Live Polymarket Odds

Who will win the 2026 midterms? — Live Polymarket Odds

Live Polymarket odds for the 2026 US Midterm Elections: 15 active markets, $27,115,191 combined volume, updated 2026-07-14 23:04 UTC. Top market: "Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?" at 82.0% Yes. Real-money prediction-market probabilities, refreshed continuously.

Active 2026 US Midterm Elections markets on Polymarket

  1. 1. Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? — Yes 0.5% · $4,562,261 volume — closes Nov 3, 2026
  2. 2. Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? — Yes 82.0% · $3,900,067 volume — closes Nov 3, 2026
  3. 3. Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? — Yes 20.0% · $3,185,966 volume — closes Nov 3, 2026
  4. 4. Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? — Yes 98.8% · $1,834,364 volume — closes Jul 31, 2026
  5. 5. 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House — Yes 44.0% · $1,701,626 volume — closes Nov 3, 2026
  6. 6. Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? — Yes 0.1% · $1,375,696 volume — closes Nov 3, 2026
  7. 7. 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House — Yes 33.0% · $1,369,550 volume — closes Nov 3, 2026
  8. 8. 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House — Yes 22.0% · $1,325,351 volume — closes Nov 3, 2026
  9. 9. Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? — Yes 47.0% · $1,274,798 volume — closes Nov 3, 2026
  10. 10. Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? — Yes 8.4% · $1,200,589 volume — closes Nov 3, 2026
  11. 11. Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? — Yes 2.8% · $1,194,217 volume — closes Nov 3, 2026
  12. 12. Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? — Yes 54.0% · $1,100,103 volume — closes Nov 3, 2026
  13. 13. Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? — Yes 1.1% · $1,050,297 volume — closes Nov 3, 2026
  14. 14. 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House — Yes 1.6% · $1,040,320 volume — closes Nov 3, 2026
  15. 15. Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? — Yes 0.2% · $999,984 volume — closes Nov 3, 2026

Frequently asked questions

What are the Polymarket odds for the 2026 US Midterm Elections?

As of 2026-07-14 23:04 UTC, the highest-volume Polymarket market on the 2026 US Midterm Elections is "Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?" at 82.0% Yes. 15 related markets are trading with $27,115,191 combined volume; every price is a real-money probability estimate that updates continuously.

How accurate are Polymarket odds?

Polymarket prices are real-money probability estimates: a Yes price of 30¢ means traders collectively price a ~30% chance. Prediction markets have historically been competitive with polls and expert forecasts because participants stake money on being right.

How do Polymarket odds on the 2026 US Midterm Elections compare to Kalshi?

Polymarket and Kalshi both run real-money prediction markets and their prices usually track closely; gaps appear around liquidity and fee differences. PolymarketScan's cross-venue monitor tracks divergences live.

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