Who will win the 2026 midterms? — Live Polymarket Odds

Who will win the 2026 midterms? — Live Polymarket Odds

Live Polymarket odds for the 2026 US Midterm Elections: 15 active markets, 31.9M shares combined volume, updated 2026-10-14 20:54 UTC. Top market: "Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?" at 91.0% Yes. Real-money prediction-market probabilities, refreshed continuously.

Active 2026 US Midterm Elections markets on Polymarket

  1. 1. Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? — Yes 91.0% · 9.55M shares traded — closes Nov 4, 2026
  2. 2. Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? — Yes 0.5% · 4.56M shares traded — closes Nov 3, 2026
  3. 3. Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? — Yes 20.0% · 3.19M shares traded — closes Nov 3, 2026
  4. 4. 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House — Yes 44.0% · 1.7M shares traded — closes Nov 3, 2026
  5. 5. Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? — Yes 0.1% · 1.38M shares traded — closes Nov 3, 2026
  6. 6. 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House — Yes 33.0% · 1.37M shares traded — closes Nov 3, 2026
  7. 7. 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House — Yes 22.0% · 1.33M shares traded — closes Nov 3, 2026
  8. 8. Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? — Yes 47.0% · 1.27M shares traded — closes Nov 3, 2026
  9. 9. Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? — Yes 8.4% · 1.2M shares traded — closes Nov 3, 2026
  10. 10. Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? — Yes 2.8% · 1.19M shares traded — closes Nov 3, 2026
  11. 11. Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? — Yes 54.0% · 1.1M shares traded — closes Nov 3, 2026
  12. 12. Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? — Yes 1.1% · 1.05M shares traded — closes Nov 3, 2026
  13. 13. 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House — Yes 1.6% · 1.04M shares traded — closes Nov 3, 2026
  14. 14. Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? — Yes 0.2% · 1M shares traded — closes Nov 3, 2026
  15. 15. Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? — Yes 0.1% · 1M shares traded — closes Nov 3, 2026

Frequently asked questions

What are the Polymarket odds for the 2026 US Midterm Elections?

As of 2026-10-14 20:54 UTC, the highest-volume Polymarket market on the 2026 US Midterm Elections is "Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?" at 91.0% Yes. 15 related markets are trading with 31.9M shares combined volume; every price is a real-money probability estimate that updates continuously.

How accurate are Polymarket odds?

Polymarket prices are real-money probability estimates: a Yes price of 30¢ means traders collectively price a ~30% chance. Prediction markets have historically been competitive with polls and expert forecasts because participants stake money on being right.

How do Polymarket odds on the 2026 US Midterm Elections compare to Kalshi?

Polymarket and Kalshi both run real-money prediction markets and their prices usually track closely; gaps appear around liquidity and fee differences. PolymarketScan's cross-venue monitor tracks divergences live.

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