Who will win the 2026 World Cup? — Live Polymarket Odds
Live Polymarket odds for the 2026 FIFA World Cup: 15 active markets, $7,363,988 combined volume, updated 2026-10-12 15:41 UTC. Top market: "Will Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" at 3.4% Yes. Real-money prediction-market probabilities, refreshed continuously.
Active 2026 FIFA World Cup markets on Polymarket
- 1. Will Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes 3.4% · $999,447 volume
- 2. Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes 20.0% · $998,766 volume
- 3. Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes 1.4% · $994,886 volume
- 4. Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes 67.0% · $992,753 volume
- 5. Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes 0.3% · $985,450 volume
- 6. Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes 4.4% · $804,141 volume
- 7. Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? — Yes 66.0% · $790,972 volume
- 8. Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes 62.0% · $99,975 volume
- 9. Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes 51.0% · $99,961 volume
- 10. Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes 64.0% · $99,915 volume
- 11. Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes 53.0% · $99,786 volume
- 12. Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes 73.0% · $99,739 volume
- 13. Will Switzerland reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes 39.0% · $99,620 volume
- 14. Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes 60.0% · $99,431 volume
- 15. Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes 62.0% · $99,147 volume
Frequently asked questions
What are the Polymarket odds for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
As of 2026-10-12 15:41 UTC, the highest-volume Polymarket market on the 2026 FIFA World Cup is "Will Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" at 3.4% Yes. 15 related markets are trading with $7,363,988 combined volume; every price is a real-money probability estimate that updates continuously.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Polymarket prices are real-money probability estimates: a Yes price of 30¢ means traders collectively price a ~30% chance. Prediction markets have historically been competitive with polls and expert forecasts because participants stake money on being right.
How do Polymarket odds on the 2026 FIFA World Cup compare to Kalshi?
Polymarket and Kalshi both run real-money prediction markets and their prices usually track closely; gaps appear around liquidity and fee differences. PolymarketScan's cross-venue monitor tracks divergences live.
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